Centre for Disease Modeling, Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada M3J 1P3.
Math Biosci. 2010 Dec;228(2):119-26. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2010.08.010. Epub 2010 Sep 7.
We formulate and analyze a delay differential equation model for the transmission of West Nile virus between vector mosquitoes and avian hosts that incorporates maturation delay for mosquitoes. The maturation time from eggs to adult mosquitoes is sensitive to weather conditions, in particular the temperature, and the model allows us to investigate the impact of this maturation time on transmission dynamics of the virus among mosquitoes and birds. Numerical results of the model show that a combination of the maturation time and the vertical transmission of the virus in mosquitoes has substantial influence on the abundance and number of infection peaks of the infectious mosquitoes.
我们建立并分析了一个关于西尼罗河病毒在媒介蚊子和鸟类宿主之间传播的时滞微分方程模型,该模型考虑了蚊子的成熟延迟。从蚊子卵到成虫的成熟时间对天气条件(特别是温度)非常敏感,该模型使我们能够研究这种成熟时间对病毒在蚊子和鸟类之间传播动力学的影响。模型的数值结果表明,成熟时间和蚊子中的垂直传播的结合对感染性蚊子的数量和感染高峰的数量有重大影响。