Effect of smoking cessation advice on cardiovascular disease.

Performance measures and guidelines encourage physicians to advise smokers to quit. The effect of these efforts on the morbidity, mortality, and cost of cardiovascular disease is not known. This article analyzes the effects of offering smoking cessation advice in the US population. The Archimedes model is used to simulate several clinical trials in which basic advice and medication advice are offered and to calculate the rates of myocardial infarctions, congestive heart disease deaths, strokes, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and cost/ QALY. The simulated population is a representative sample of the US population drawn from the Third National Health and Nutrition Survey conducted just before the performance measures and guidelines were introduced. The results show that offering basic advice and medication advice can prevent about 13% and 19% of myocardial infarctions and strokes, respectively. The 30-year cost/QALY is approximately $3000 less than the base-case assumptions and less than $10 000 under pessimistic assumptions.