Kundi Michael
Institute of Environmental Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Environ Health Perspect. 2009 Mar;117(3):316-24. doi: 10.1289/ehp.11902. Epub 2008 Sep 26.
During the last decade, mobile phone use increased to almost 100% prevalence in many countries of the world. Evidence for potential health hazards accumulated in parallel by epidemiologic investigations has raised controversies about the appropriate interpretation and the degree of bias and confounding responsible for reduced or increased risk estimates.
Overall, I identified 33 epidemiologic studies in the peer-reviewed literature, most of which (25) were about brain tumors. Two groups have collected data for >or=10 years of mobile phone use: Hardell and colleagues from Sweden and the Interphone group, an international consortium from 13 countries coordinated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer.
Combined odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) from these studies for glioma, acoustic neuroma, and meningioma were 1.5 (1.2-1.8); 1.3 (0.95-1.9); and 1.1 (0.8-1.4), respectively.
Methodologic considerations revealed that three important conditions for epidemiologic studies to detect an increased risk are not met: a ) no evidence-based exposure metric is available; b) the observed duration of mobile phone use is generally still too low; c) no evidence-based selection of end points among the grossly different types of neoplasias is possible because of lack of etiologic hypotheses. Concerning risk estimates, selection bias, misclassification bias, and effects of the disease on mobile phone use could have reduced estimates, and recall bias may have led to spuriously increased risks. The overall evidence speaks in favor of an increased risk, but its magnitude cannot be assessed at present because of insufficient information on long-term use.
在过去十年中,世界上许多国家手机使用率增长至近100%。与此同时,流行病学调查积累的潜在健康危害证据引发了关于适当解释以及导致风险估计降低或升高的偏差和混杂程度的争议。
总体而言,我在同行评审文献中确定了33项流行病学研究,其中大多数(25项)是关于脑肿瘤的。有两个团队收集了使用手机≥10年的数据:瑞典的哈德尔及其同事,以及国际癌症研究机构协调的来自13个国家的国际财团“国际癌症研究项目”。
这些研究中,胶质瘤、听神经瘤和脑膜瘤的合并优势比(95%置信区间)分别为1.5(1.2 - 1.8);1.3(0.95 - 1.9);和1.1(0.8 - 1.4)。
方法学考量表明,流行病学研究检测风险增加的三个重要条件未得到满足:a)没有基于证据的暴露指标;b)观察到的手机使用时长总体上仍然过低;c)由于缺乏病因假设,在截然不同的肿瘤类型中无法基于证据选择终点。关于风险估计,选择偏倚、错误分类偏倚以及疾病对手机使用的影响可能导致估计值降低,而回忆偏倚可能导致风险虚假升高。总体证据表明风险增加,但由于长期使用信息不足,目前无法评估其程度。