Jorge Jose Eduardo Loureiro, Cagy Mauricio, Mesquita Evandro Tinoco, Costa Thiago L M da, Moscavitch Samuel Datum, Rosa Maria Luiza Garcia
Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niterói, Brasil, RJ.
Rev Saude Publica. 2009 Jun;43(3):555-7. doi: 10.1590/s0034-89102009000300021. Epub 2009 Apr 3.
The objective of the study was to describe seasonality of hospitalizations for heart failure in tropical climate as it has been described in cold climates. Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving-Average model was applied to time-series data of heart failure hospitalizations between 1996 and 2004 in Niteroi (Southeastern Brazil), collected from the Brazilian National Health Service Database. The standard seasonal variation was obtained by means of moving-average filtering and averaging data. The lowest and the highest annual hospital admissions were 507 (1997) and 849 (2002), respectively; the lowest and the highest monthly rates were 419 (December) and 681 (October), respectively. Peak admission rates were seen during the fall and winter. Although weak, the seasonality observed indicates that slight variations result in increased hospitalizations for heart failure.
该研究的目的是描述热带气候中心力衰竭住院的季节性情况，正如在寒冷气候中所描述的那样。将季节性自回归积分滑动平均模型应用于1996年至2004年在巴西东南部尼泰罗伊收集的来自巴西国家卫生服务数据库的心力衰竭住院时间序列数据。通过移动平均滤波和平均数据获得标准季节性变化。年度住院人数最低和最高分别为507例（1997年）和849例（2002年）；每月发病率最低和最高分别为419例（12月）和681例（10月）。秋季和冬季出现入院率高峰。尽管这种季节性较弱，但观察到的季节性表明，轻微变化会导致心力衰竭住院人数增加。
