Martin Steven
2112 Art-Sociology Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Demography. 2009 Feb;46(1):203-8; discussion 211-9. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0042.
This analysis joins the debate on how declines in marriage have shifted the composition of the unmarried and married populations in the United States, and how compositional shifts have affected nonmarital birth rates. Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006) presented one model for compositional effects that Ermisch (2009) challenged with alternative statistical tests. I propose an alternative model for compositional shifts based not on theory but on observed marriage and fertility patterns. The results from this alternative model are consistent with Ermisch's findings yet support Gray et al.'s general case that compositional effects have had an important influence on nonmarital birth rates.
这一分析参与了关于婚姻下降如何改变美国未婚和已婚人口构成，以及构成变化如何影响非婚生育率的辩论。格雷、斯托卡德和斯通（2006年）提出了一种构成效应模型，埃尔米施（2009年）用替代统计检验对其提出了质疑。我提出了一种基于观察到的婚姻和生育模式而非理论的构成变化替代模型。这个替代模型的结果与埃尔米施的发现一致，但支持了格雷等人的总体观点，即构成效应对非婚生育率有重要影响。
