Yorifuji Takashi, Suzuki Etsuji, Tsuda Toshihide
Department of Epidemiology, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama, Japan.
Epidemiology. 2009 Jul;20(4):619-21. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181a3d3f6.
Oseltamivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor that inhibits influenza virus proliferation, and is used as an antiviral drug against influenza A and B viruses. Recently, concerns have been raised about hallucinations, delirium, and abnormal activity after administration of oseltamivir for treatment of infection with influenza virus. A large epidemiologic study was conducted in Japan in the winter of 2006-2007 to assess the relationship between oseltamivir intake and adverse behaviors, and an interim report was released on 10 July 2008. In the report, the research group concluded that no positive associations were detected between oseltamivir intake and abnormal behaviors. However, the analytic method used in the study was flawed. A correct analysis (based on person-time) shows a rate ratio of 1.57 (95% confidence interval = 1.34-1.83). This example clearly illustrates the importance of person-time in the analysis of cohort studies.
奥司他韦是一种抑制流感病毒增殖的神经氨酸酶抑制剂，用作抗甲型和乙型流感病毒的抗病毒药物。最近，人们对使用奥司他韦治疗流感病毒感染后出现幻觉、谵妄和异常行为表示担忧。2006 - 2007年冬季在日本进行了一项大型流行病学研究，以评估服用奥司他韦与不良行为之间的关系，并于2008年7月10日发布了一份中期报告。在该报告中，研究小组得出结论，未发现服用奥司他韦与异常行为之间存在正相关。然而，该研究中使用的分析方法存在缺陷。正确的分析（基于人时）显示率比为1.57（95%置信区间 = 1.34 - 1.83）。这个例子清楚地说明了人时在队列研究分析中的重要性。
