Wikramaratna Paul S, Gupta Sunetra
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK.
Cell Microbiol. 2009 Jul;11(7):1016-24. doi: 10.1111/j.1462-5822.2009.01320.x. Epub 2009 Apr 6.
Influenza is a virus that causes considerable morbidity and mortality in human populations every year. This fact, coupled with its perceived pandemic potential, means that influenza features prominently in both scientific literature and the media. In this review we focus on the biological assumptions behind theoretical attempts to understand the seasonal and evolutionary dynamics of influenza through mathematical modelling and suggest that the largely unchallenged dogma upon which most efforts are currently based is sorely lacking.
流感是一种每年都会在人群中导致相当高发病率和死亡率的病毒。这一事实，再加上其被认为的大流行潜力，意味着流感在科学文献和媒体中都占据显著地位。在本综述中，我们聚焦于通过数学建模来理解流感季节性和进化动态的理论尝试背后的生物学假设，并指出目前大多数努力所基于的、基本未受质疑的教条严重缺失。
