Frumkin Howard, Hess Jeremy, Vindigni Stephen
National Center for Environmental Health and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy., MS F-61, Atlanta, GA 30341-3717, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2009 Jan-Feb;124(1):5-19. doi: 10.1177/003335490912400103.
Petroleum is a unique and essential energy source, used as the principal fuel for transportation, in producing many chemicals, and for numerous other purposes. Global petroleum production is expected to reach a maximum in the near future and to decline thereafter, a phenomenon known as "peak petroleum." This article reviews petroleum geology and uses, describes the phenomenon of peak petroleum, and reviews the scientific literature on the timing of this transition. It then discusses how peak petroleum may affect public health and health care, by reference to four areas: medical supplies and equipment, transportation, energy generation, and food production. Finally, it suggests strategies for anticipating and preparing for peak petroleum, both general public health preparedness strategies and actions specific to the four expected health system impacts.
石油是一种独特且至关重要的能源，用作交通运输的主要燃料、用于生产多种化学品以及诸多其他用途。全球石油产量预计在不久的将来达到峰值，随后便会下降，这一现象被称为“石油峰值”。本文回顾了石油地质学及其用途，描述了石油峰值现象，并综述了关于这一转变时间的科学文献。接着，本文通过参考四个领域讨论了石油峰值可能如何影响公众健康和医疗保健：医疗用品与设备、交通运输、能源生产以及食品生产。最后，本文提出了针对石油峰值进行预测和准备的策略，包括一般公众健康准备策略以及针对预期的四个卫生系统影响的具体行动。
