Thiessen K M, Andersson K G, Charnock T W, Gallay F
SENES Oak Ridge, Inc., Center for Risk Analysis, 102 Donner Drive, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA.
J Environ Radioact. 2009 Jul;100(7):564-73. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2009.03.021. Epub 2009 May 8.
The impact on a population from an event resulting in dispersal and deposition of radionuclides in an urban area could be significant, in terms of both the number of people affected and the economic costs of recovery. The use of computer models for assessment of urban contamination situations and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches, approaches for modelling countermeasure effectiveness, and current sources of information on parameters related to countermeasure effectiveness. Countermeasure information must be applied with careful thought as to its applicability for the specific situation being modelled. Much of the current information base comes from the Chernobyl experience and would not be applicable for all types of situations.
就受影响的人数和恢复所需的经济成本而言,导致放射性核素在城市地区扩散和沉积的事件对人群的影响可能是巨大的。利用计算机模型评估城市污染情况和补救方案,能够在应急准备或决策背景下评估各种情况或替代恢复策略。目前,有多种适用于不同目的的模型和建模方法。本文总结了现有的建模方法、对策有效性建模方法,以及与对策有效性相关参数的当前信息来源。在应用对策信息时,必须仔细考虑其对所模拟的特定情况的适用性。当前的许多信息库都来自切尔诺贝利事故的经验,并不适用于所有类型的情况。