School of Nursing, Dalhousie University, Canada.
Health Policy. 2009 Oct;92(2-3):225-33. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2009.04.001. Epub 2009 May 13.
Health human resource planning has traditionally been based on simple models of demographic changes applied to observed levels of service utilization or provider supply. No consideration has been given to the implications of changing levels of need within populations over time. Recently, needs based resource planning models have been suggested that incorporate changes in needs for care explicitly as a determinant of health care needs.
In this paper, population indicators of morbidity, mortality and self-assessed health are analyzed to determine if health care needs have changed across birth cohorts in Canada from 1994 to 2005 among older age groups. Multivariate regression analysis was used to estimate the age pattern of health by birth year with interaction terms included to examine whether the association of age with health was conditional on the birth year.
Results indicate that while the probability of mortality, mobility problems and pain rises with age, the rate of change is greater for those born earlier. The probability of self-assessed poor health increases with age but the rate of change with age is constant across birth years.
Even in the short time period covered, our analysis shows that health care needs by age are changing over time in Canada.
卫生人力资源规划传统上是基于对服务利用或提供者供应的观察水平应用的人口变化的简单模型。没有考虑到随着时间的推移，人群中需求水平的变化所带来的影响。最近，有人提出了基于需求的资源规划模型，该模型明确地将对护理的需求变化作为医疗保健需求的决定因素。
在本文中，我们分析了人口发病率、死亡率和自我评估健康状况的指标，以确定在加拿大，从 1994 年到 2005 年，年龄较大的人群中，各出生队列的健康需求是否发生了变化。我们使用多元回归分析来估计按出生年份划分的健康年龄模式，并包括交互项来检验年龄与健康的关系是否取决于出生年份。
结果表明，虽然死亡率、行动问题和疼痛的概率随着年龄的增长而上升，但对于那些出生较早的人来说，这种变化的速度更快。自我评估健康状况不佳的概率随着年龄的增长而增加，但与年龄相关的变化率在出生年份之间是恒定的。
即使在涵盖的短时间内，我们的分析也表明，加拿大的按年龄划分的医疗保健需求随着时间的推移而发生变化。
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