Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, #74 Zhongshan Road II, Guangzhou, China.
Health Policy. 2010 Oct;97(2-3):259-66. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2010.05.009. Epub 2010 Jun 16.
The objectives of this paper are: (1) to estimate the transition probabilities among self-rated health status for the oldest Chinese aged 80 and above; (2) to project the future need of long-term care due to changes in demography and health status among the oldest Chinese.
Self-rated health data collected in Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey conducted in 1998, 2000 and 2002 were used to estimate the self-rated health status transition probabilities, and to project future long-term care need by calculating the number of unhealthy person-years.
The majority of the oldest Chinese's health status remains unchanged or worsens within 2 years. The number of unhealthy person-years rises regardless of gender, and the absolute number and increase rate of females are higher than those of males. Under the assumption that average care expenditure is 15 US dollars per hour in 2010, the long-term care expenditure will increase from 8352 million dollars in 2010 to 42,530 million dollars in 2050, a growth of more than 400% over the next 40 years.
Long-term care need for the oldest Chinese will rise rapidly in the next decades, which should stimulate increased governmental and public awareness of their need.
本文旨在：（1）估计 80 岁及以上的中国老年人自评健康状况之间的转变概率；（2）预测由于中国老年人人口结构和健康状况的变化，未来长期护理的需求。
使用 1998 年、2000 年和 2002 年进行的中国长寿纵向研究中收集的自评健康数据来估计自评健康状况转变概率，并通过计算不健康人年数来预测未来的长期护理需求。
大多数中国老年人的健康状况在 2 年内保持不变或恶化。无论性别如何，不健康人年数都在增加，女性的绝对人数和增长率均高于男性。假设 2010 年每小时的平均护理费用为 15 美元，那么长期护理支出将从 2010 年的 83.52 亿美元增加到 2050 年的 4253 亿美元，在未来 40 年内增长超过 400%。
在未来几十年，中国老年人对长期护理的需求将迅速增加，这应该促使政府和公众更加关注他们的需求。
