Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Inistitute, Stockholm, Sweden.
Bull Math Biol. 2009 Nov;71(8):1902-13. doi: 10.1007/s11538-009-9430-x. Epub 2009 May 28.
In elaborating a model of the progress of an epidemic, it is necessary to make assumptions about the distributions of latency times and infectious times. In many models, the often implicit assumption is that these times are independent and exponentially distributed. We explore the effects of altering the distribution of latency and infectious times in a complex epidemic model with regional divisions connected by a travel intensity matrix. We show a delay in spread with more realistic latency times. More realistic infectiousness times lead to faster epidemics. The effects are similar but accentuated when compared to a purely homogeneous mixing model.
在详细阐述传染病的传播模型时，需要对潜伏期和传染期的分布进行假设。在许多模型中，通常隐含的假设是这些时间是独立的，并且呈指数分布。我们通过一个具有区域划分的复杂传染病模型，以及一个由旅行强度矩阵连接的区域划分模型，来研究改变潜伏期和传染期分布的影响。我们发现，更符合实际情况的潜伏期会导致传播延迟。更符合实际情况的传染性会导致更快的传染病爆发。与纯同质混合模型相比，这些影响类似，但更为明显。
