Streets David G, Zhang Qiang, Wu Ye
Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Apr 15;43(8):2983-8. doi: 10.1021/es802474j.
Global Hg emissions are presented for the year 2050 under a variety of assumptions about socioeconomic and technology development. We find it likely that Hg emissions will increase in the future. The range of 2050 global Hg emissions is projected to be 2390-4860 Mg, compared to 2006 levels of 2480 Mg, reflecting a change of -4% to +96%. The main driving force for increased emissions is the expansion of coal-fired electricity generation in the developing world, particularly Asia. Our ability to arrest the growth in Hg emissions is limited by the relatively low Hg removal efficiency of the current generation of emission control technologies for coal-fired power plants (flue-gas desulfurization). Large-scale deployment of advanced Hg sorbent technologies, such as Activated Carbon Injection, offers the promise of lowering the 2050 emissions range to 1670-3480 Mg, but these technologies are not yet in commercial use. The share of elemental Hg in total emissions will decline from today's levels of approximately 65% to approximately 50-55% by 2050, while the share of divalent Hg will increase. This signals a shift from long-range transport of elemental Hg to local deposition of Hg compounds-though emissions of both species could increase under the worst case.
在对社会经济和技术发展的各种假设下，给出了2050年全球汞排放情况。我们发现未来汞排放有可能增加。预计2050年全球汞排放量在2390 - 4860公吨之间，而2006年的水平为2480公吨，变化幅度为 - 4%至 + 96%。排放增加的主要驱动力是发展中世界，特别是亚洲的燃煤发电扩张。我们遏制汞排放增长的能力受到当前一代燃煤电厂排放控制技术（烟气脱硫）相对较低的汞去除效率的限制。大规模部署先进的汞吸附剂技术，如喷入活性炭，有望将2050年的排放范围降至1670 - 3480公吨，但这些技术尚未投入商业使用。到2050年，元素汞在总排放量中的占比将从目前约65%的水平降至约50 - 55%，而二价汞的占比将增加。这表明从元素汞的长距离传输向汞化合物的本地沉积转变——尽管在最坏情况下这两种汞的排放都可能增加。
