Vishwanathan Saritha Sudharmma, Hanaoka Tatsuya, Garg Amit
Social System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
Kyoto University, Graduate School of Engineering, Nishikyoku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Oct 31;57(43):16265-16275. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c01820. Epub 2023 Oct 20.
India is one of the largest emitters of atmospheric anthropogenic mercury (Hg) and the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. In the past decade, India has been committed to the Minamata Convention (2017) in addition to the Paris Climate Change Agreement (2015) and the Glasgow Pact (2021). More than 70% to 80% of India's mercury and carbon dioxide emissions occur because of anthropogenic activities from coal usage. This study explores nine policy scenarios, the nationally determined contribution (NDC) scenario, and two deep decarbonization pathways (DDP) with and without mercury control technologies in the energy and carbon-intensive sectors using a bottom-up, techno-economic model, AIM/Enduse India. It is estimated that NDC scenarios reduce mercury emissions by 4%-10% by 2070; while coal intensive (DDP-CCS) pathways and focus on renewables (DDP-R) reduce emissions by 10%-54% and 15%-59%, respectively. Increase in the renewables share (power sector) can result in a significant reduction in the costs of additional pollution-abating technologies in the DDP-R scenario when compared with the coal intensive DDP-CCS scenario. However, the industry sector, especially iron and steel and metal production, will require stringent policies to encourage installation of pollution-abating technologies to mitigate mercury emissions under all the scenarios.
印度是大气中人为汞（Hg）的最大排放国之一，也是世界第三大温室气体排放国。在过去十年中，除了《巴黎气候变化协定》（2015年）和《格拉斯哥协定》（2021年）之外，印度还致力于《水俣公约》（2017年）。印度70%至80%以上的汞和二氧化碳排放是由于煤炭使用的人为活动造成的。本研究使用自下而上的技术经济模型AIM/Enduse India，探索了九种政策情景、国家自主贡献（NDC）情景以及能源和碳密集型部门中有无汞控制技术的两条深度脱碳路径（DDP）。据估计，到2070年，NDC情景将汞排放量减少4%至10%；而煤炭密集型（DDP-CCS）路径和专注于可再生能源的路径（DDP-R）分别将排放量减少10%至54%和15%至59%。与煤炭密集型DDP-CCS情景相比，可再生能源份额（电力部门）的增加会使DDP-R情景中额外污染减排技术的成本大幅降低。然而，在所有情景下，工业部门，特别是钢铁和金属生产部门，将需要严格的政策来鼓励安装污染减排技术以减少汞排放。
