Weismüller Tobias J, Negm Ahmed, Becker Thomas, Barg-Hock Hannelore, Klempnauer Jürgen, Manns Michael P, Strassburg Christian P
Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
Transpl Int. 2009 Oct;22(10):970-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1432-2277.2009.00915.x. Epub 2009 Jul 10.
Introduction of the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) for organ allocation has changed the waiting-list management. Despite reports of unaffected survival after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in the MELD era, survival rates have decreased in our center. The aim of this study was to identify factors contributing to reduced survival. Three-month survival, recipient and graft parameters of all 323 OLT between 2004 and 2008, which fall into a pre- (N = 220) and a post-MELD (n = 103) era, were analysed by Kaplan-Meier-, Mann-Whitney- and Fisher tests. After the introduction of MELD, mean scores at OLT increased (14.8 vs. 18.6, P = 0.002). The main indications for OLT were not statistically different between eras. Post-MELD recipients were older (47.9 vs. 50.9 years, P = 0.025), donors younger (NS), cold ischemia time shorter (696 vs. 635 min., P = 0.001), and duration of surgery longer (218 vs. 245 min., P = 0.001). Procedure time significantly correlated with MELD and international normalized ratio (INR). Three-month survival dropped (from 88.6% to 79.6%, P = 0.03). Independent variables of survival were creatinine, urea and duration of surgery. Reduced 3-month survival was associated with longer surgery duration, higher creatinine and urea likely reflecting higher recipient morbidity. Survival probability should be incorporated into MELD-based graft allocation.
终末期肝病模型(MELD)用于器官分配改变了等待名单管理。尽管有报道称在MELD时代原位肝移植(OLT)后生存率未受影响,但我们中心的生存率却有所下降。本研究的目的是确定导致生存率降低的因素。通过Kaplan-Meier检验、Mann-Whitney检验和Fisher检验分析了2004年至2008年间323例OLT的三个月生存率、受者和移植物参数,这些病例分为MELD时代之前(N = 220)和MELD时代之后(n = 103)两个时期。引入MELD后,OLT时的平均评分升高(14.8对18.6,P = 0.002)。两个时期OLT的主要适应证在统计学上无差异。MELD时代之后的受者年龄更大(47.9岁对50.9岁,P = 0.025),供者年龄更小(无统计学差异),冷缺血时间更短(696分钟对635分钟,P = 0.001),手术时间更长(218分钟对245分钟,P = 0.001)。手术时间与MELD和国际标准化比值(INR)显著相关。三个月生存率下降(从88.6%降至79.6%,P = 0.03)。生存的独立变量为肌酐、尿素和手术时间。三个月生存率降低与手术时间延长、肌酐和尿素升高有关,这可能反映了受者更高的发病率。生存概率应纳入基于MELD的移植物分配中。