Ecosocial consequences and policy implications of disease management in East African agropastoral systems.

International research and development efforts in Africa have brought ecological and social change, but analyzing the consequences of this change and developing policy to manage it for sustainable development has been difficult. This has been largely due to a lack of conceptual and analytical models to access the interacting dynamics of the different components of ecosocial systems. Here, we examine the ecological and social changes resulting from an ongoing suppression of trypanosomiasis disease in cattle in an agropastoral community in southwest Ethiopia to illustrate how such problems may be addressed. The analysis combines physiologically based demographic models of pasture, cattle, and pastoralists and a bioeconomic model that includes the demographic models as dynamic constraints in the economic objective function that maximizes the utility of individual consumption under different level of disease risk in cattle. Field data and model analysis show that suppression of trypanosomiasis leads to increased cattle and human populations and to increased agricultural development. However, in the absence of sound management, these changes will lead to a decline in pasture quality and increase the risk from tick-borne diseases in cattle and malaria in humans that would threaten system sustainability and resilience. The analysis of these conflicting outcomes of trypanosomiasis suppression is used to illustrate the need for and utility of conceptual bioeconomic models to serve as a basis for developing policy for sustainable agropastoral resource management in sub-Saharan Africa.