Jemal A, Justic D, Hugh-Jones M E
Department of Epidemiology and Community Health, Coastal Ecology Institute, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
Vet Res Commun. 1995;19(6):479-85. doi: 10.1007/BF01839336.
The long-term impact of tsetse control on cattle population size in the Didessa Valley, western Ethiopia, was analysed using an age-structured population model. A prior analytical assessment revealed that the risk of cattle dying in the tsetse-unprotected villages ranged from 4 to 9 times higher than in the tsetse-protected village. Model results show that during a period of 10 years the cattle population in the tsetse-protected village of Meti is likely to increase from 167 to 583 animals, while that in the adjacent tsetse-unprotected village of Gale remains almost constant. Model simulations also predict that improving the survival rate of calves in the tsetse-unprotected villages of Taikiltu and Temoloko (which presently have calf mortality rates of up to 35% would bring a substantial increase in their cattle population.
利用年龄结构人口模型分析了埃塞俄比亚西部迪德萨山谷采采蝇控制对牛群数量的长期影响。先前的分析评估表明，在未受采采蝇保护的村庄，牛死亡的风险比受采采蝇保护的村庄高4至9倍。模型结果显示，在10年期间，受采采蝇保护的梅蒂村的牛群数量可能从167头增加到583头，而相邻的未受采采蝇保护的加勒村的牛群数量几乎保持不变。模型模拟还预测，提高泰基尔图和特莫洛科未受采采蝇保护村庄的小牛存活率（目前小牛死亡率高达35%）将使这些村庄的牛群数量大幅增加。
