Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, U.K.
Stat Med. 2009 Nov 10;28(25):3049-67. doi: 10.1002/sim.3680.
BUGS is a software package for Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. The software has been instrumental in raising awareness of Bayesian modelling among both academic and commercial communities internationally, and has enjoyed considerable success over its 20-year life span. Despite this, the software has a number of shortcomings and a principal aim of this paper is to provide a balanced critical appraisal, in particular highlighting how various ideas have led to unprecedented flexibility while at the same time producing negative side effects. We also present a historical overview of the BUGS project and some future perspectives.
BUGS 是一个用于贝叶斯推断的 Gibbs 采样软件包。该软件在提高国际学术界和商业界对贝叶斯建模的认识方面发挥了重要作用，并且在其 20 年的生命周期中取得了相当大的成功。尽管如此，该软件仍存在一些缺点，本文的主要目的是提供一个平衡的批判性评估，特别是强调各种思想如何在产生负面影响的同时带来前所未有的灵活性。我们还介绍了 BUGS 项目的历史概述和一些未来展望。
