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气候破坏与生物多样性。

Climate disruption and biodiversity.

作者信息

Pimm Stuart L

机构信息

Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Room A301 LSRC building, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.

出版信息

Curr Biol. 2009 Jul 28;19(14):R595-601. doi: 10.1016/j.cub.2009.05.055.

Abstract

'Global warming' may be a familiar term, but it is seriously misleading. Human actions are causing a massive disruption to the planet's climate that is severe, rapid, very variable over space and time, and highly complex. The biosphere itself is complex and its responses to even simple changes are difficult to predict in detail. One can likely only be certain that many changes will be unexpected and some unfortunate. Even the simple, slow warming of the climate will produce complex consequences to species numbers and distributions because of how species depend on each other. An alternative approach to worrying about details is to concentrate on understanding the most significant ecological changes, ones that are irreversible--so-called 'tipping points'. Once such a point has been passed, even if society managed to restore historical climatic conditions, it might not restore the historical ecological patterns. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the loss of species, for we cannot recreate them. Climate disruptions may cause the loss of a large fraction of the planet's biodiversity, even if the only mechanism were to be species ranges moving uphill as temperatures rise.

摘要

“全球变暖”可能是个耳熟能详的词汇,但它极具误导性。人类活动正在对地球气候造成大规模破坏,这种破坏严重、迅速,在空间和时间上变化极大,且极为复杂。生物圈本身就很复杂,其对哪怕是简单变化的反应都难以详细预测。人们或许只能确定,许多变化将出乎意料,有些还会带来不幸。即便气候只是简单、缓慢地变暖,也会因物种间的相互依存关系而给物种数量和分布带来复杂后果。另一种不必纠结于细节的方法是专注于理解最重大的生态变化,即那些不可逆转的变化——所谓的“临界点”。一旦越过这样一个点,即便社会设法恢复历史气候条件,也可能无法恢复历史生态模式。这在物种灭绝方面表现得最为明显,因为我们无法再造已灭绝的物种。气候破坏可能导致地球上很大一部分生物多样性丧失,哪怕唯一的机制只是随着气温上升物种分布范围向上移动。

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