Thomas Chris D, Cameron Alison, Green Rhys E, Bakkenes Michel, Beaumont Linda J, Collingham Yvonne C, Erasmus Barend F N, De Siqueira Marinez Ferreira, Grainger Alan, Hannah Lee, Hughes Lesley, Huntley Brian, Van Jaarsveld Albert S, Midgley Guy F, Miles Lera, Ortega-Huerta Miguel A, Peterson A Townsend, Phillips Oliver L, Williams Stephen E
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
Nature. 2004 Jan 8;427(6970):145-8. doi: 10.1038/nature02121.
Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
在过去约30年里，气候变化已导致众多物种的分布和数量发生了诸多变化，并且与一个物种的灭绝有关。利用未来气候情景下物种分布的预测，我们评估了覆盖约地球陆地表面20%的样本区域的灭绝风险。通过探究三种估计灭绝概率与地理分布范围大小呈幂律关系的方法，我们基于2050年中等程度气候变暖情景预测，在我们的区域和分类单元样本中，15% - 37%的物种将“注定灭绝”。当采用三种方法和两种扩散情景的平均值时，最低限度气候变暖情景下预计注定灭绝的物种比例（约18%）低于中等程度（约24%）和最大变化（约35%）情景。这些估计结果表明迅速实施减少温室气体排放的技术以及碳封存策略的重要性。
