Zhang Ying, Nakai Satoshi, Masunaga Shigeki
79-7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya-ku, Yokohama, Japan.
Risk Anal. 2009 Sep;29(9):1281-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01268.x. Epub 2009 Jul 23.
The objective of this article was to propose an exposure assessment model to describe the relationship between fish consumption and body methyl mercury (MeHg) levels in the Japanese population. Individual MeHg intake was estimated by the summation of species-specific fish consumption multiplied by species-specific fish MeHg levels. The distribution of fish consumed by individuals and the MeHg level in each fish species were assigned based on published data from Japanese government institutions. The probability of MeHg intake for a population was accomplished through a Monte Carlo simulation by the random sampling of fish consumption and species-specific MeHg levels. Internal body MeHg levels in blood and hair were estimated using a one-compartment model. Overall, the mean value of MeHg intake for the Japanese population was estimated to be 6.76 microg/day or 0.14 microg/kg body weight per day (bw/day), while the mean value for the hair mercury level was 2.02 microg/g. Compared with the survey data that tabulated hair mercury levels in a cross-section of the Japanese population, the simulation results matched the hair mercury survey data very well for women, but somewhat underestimated for men and all of the population. This exposure assessment model is a useful attempt at further risk assessment with respect to a risk-benefit analysis.
本文的目的是提出一种暴露评估模型，以描述日本人群中鱼类消费与体内甲基汞（MeHg）水平之间的关系。个体甲基汞摄入量通过特定鱼类消费量乘以特定鱼类甲基汞水平之和来估算。个体所消费鱼类的分布以及每种鱼类中的甲基汞水平是根据日本政府机构公布的数据确定的。通过对鱼类消费量和特定鱼类甲基汞水平进行随机抽样的蒙特卡罗模拟，得出人群甲基汞摄入概率。使用单室模型估算血液和头发中的体内甲基汞水平。总体而言，日本人群甲基汞摄入的平均值估计为6.76微克/天或0.14微克/千克体重/天（bw/天），而头发汞水平的平均值为2.02微克/克。与对日本人群横断面头发汞水平进行列表的调查数据相比，模拟结果对女性的头发汞调查数据匹配得非常好，但对男性和所有人群则略有低估。这种暴露评估模型是在风险效益分析方面进行进一步风险评估的有益尝试。
