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基于髋部骨折推算 10 年骨质疏松性骨折率:一项临床验证研究。

Imputation of 10-year osteoporotic fracture rates from hip fractures: a clinical validation study.

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.

出版信息

J Bone Miner Res. 2010 Feb;25(2):388-92. doi: 10.1359/jbmr.090804.

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) fracture risk assessment system (FRAX) allows for calibration from country-specific fracture data. The objective of this study was to evaluate the method for imputation of osteoporotic fracture rates from hip fractures alone. A total of 38,784 women aged 47.5 years or older at the time of baseline femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) measurement were identified in a database containing all clinical dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Health service records were assessed for the presence of nontrauma osteoporotic fracture codes after BMD testing (431 hip, 787 forearm, 336 clinical vertebral, and 431 humerus fractures). Ten-year hip and osteoporotic fracture rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The population was stratified by age (50 to 90 years, 5-year width strata) and again by femoral neck T-scores (-4.0 to 0.0, 0.5 SD width strata). Within each stratum, the ratio of hip to osteoporotic fractures was calculated and compared with the predicted ratio from FRAX. Increasing age was associated with greater predicted hip-to-osteoporotic ratios (youngest 0.07 versus oldest 0.41) and observed ratios (youngest 0.10 versus oldest 0.48). Lower T-scores were associated with greater predicted (highest 0.04 versus lowest 0.71) and observed ratios (highest 0.06 versus lowest 0.44). There was a strong positive correlation between predicted and observed ratios (Spearman r = 0.90-0.97, p < .001). For 14 of the 18 strata, the predicted ratio was within the observed 95% confidence interval (CI). Since collection of population-based hip fracture data is considerably easier than collection of non-hip fracture data, this study supports the current emphasis on using hip fractures as the preferred site for FRAX model calibration.

摘要

世界卫生组织(WHO)骨折风险评估系统(FRAX)允许根据特定国家/地区的骨折数据进行校准。本研究的目的是评估仅从髋部骨折推断骨质疏松性骨折发生率的方法。在一个包含加拿大马尼托巴省所有临床双能 X 射线吸收法(DXA)结果的数据库中,共确定了 38784 名年龄在基线股骨颈骨密度(BMD)测量时为 47.5 岁或以上的女性。在 BMD 检测后,根据健康服务记录评估是否存在非创伤性骨质疏松性骨折代码(431 髋部、787 前臂、336 临床椎体和 431 肱骨骨折)。使用 Kaplan-Meier 方法估计 10 年髋部和骨质疏松性骨折发生率。人群按年龄(50 至 90 岁,每 5 岁为一个宽度分层)和股骨颈 T 评分(-4.0 至 0.0,0.5 SD 宽度分层)再次分层。在每个分层内,计算髋部与骨质疏松性骨折的比例,并与 FRAX 预测的比例进行比较。年龄的增加与更高的预测髋部与骨质疏松性骨折的比例相关(最年轻的为 0.07,最年长的为 0.41)和观察到的比例(最年轻的为 0.10,最年长的为 0.48)。较低的 T 评分与更高的预测(最高的为 0.04,最低的为 0.71)和观察到的比例(最高的为 0.06,最低的为 0.44)相关。预测比例与观察比例之间存在很强的正相关(Spearman r = 0.90-0.97,p <.001)。在 18 个分层中的 14 个中,预测比例在观察到的 95%置信区间(CI)内。由于收集基于人群的髋部骨折数据比收集非髋部骨折数据容易得多,因此本研究支持当前强调使用髋部骨折作为 FRAX 模型校准的首选部位的做法。

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