Golden Neal J, Crouch Edmund A, Latimer Heejeong, Kadry Abdel-Razak, Kause Janell
Risk Assessment Division, Office of Public Health Science, Food Safety and Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20250, USA.
J Food Prot. 2009 Jul;72(7):1376-84. doi: 10.4315/0362-028x-72.7.1376.
An assessment of the risk of illness associated with Clostridium perfringens in ready-to-eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products was completed to estimate the effect on the annual frequency of illnesses of changing the allowed maximal 1-log growth of C. perfringens during stabilization (cooling after the manufacturing heat step). The exposure assessment modeled stabilization, storage, and consumer preparation such as reheating and hot-holding. The model predicted that assuming a 10- or 100-fold increase from the assumed 1-log (maximal allowable) growth of C. perfringens results in a 1.2- or 1.6-fold increase of C. perfringens-caused illnesses, respectively, at the median of the uncertainty distribution. Improper retail and consumer refrigeration accounted for approximately 90% of the 79,000 C. perfringens illnesses predicted by the model at 1-log growth during stabilization. Improper hot-holding accounted for 8% of predicted illnesses, although model limitations imply that this is an underestimate. Stabilization accounted for less than 1% of illnesses. Efforts to reduce illnesses from C. perfringens in ready-to-eat and partially cooked meat and poultry products should focus on retail and consumer storage and preparation methods.
对即食和部分烹饪的肉类及家禽产品中与产气荚膜梭菌相关的疾病风险进行了评估，以估计在稳定化过程（制造加热步骤后的冷却）中改变产气荚膜梭菌允许的最大1对数增长对年发病频率的影响。暴露评估模拟了稳定化、储存以及消费者的准备过程，如重新加热和保温。该模型预测，假设产气荚膜梭菌的增长从假定的1对数（最大允许）增长增加10倍或100倍，在不确定性分布的中位数处，分别会导致产气荚膜梭菌引起的疾病增加1.2倍或1.6倍。在稳定化过程中，零售和消费者冷藏不当约占模型预测的79,000例产气荚膜梭菌疾病的90%。保温不当占预测疾病的8%，尽管模型的局限性表明这是一个低估。稳定化过程导致的疾病占比不到1%。减少即食和部分烹饪的肉类及家禽产品中产气荚膜梭菌疾病的努力应集中在零售和消费者的储存及准备方法上。
