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汉堡包和三明治中（某些物质）的预测建模与概率风险评估 。 你提供的原文似乎不完整，“Predictive modeling and probabilistic risk assessment of in hamburgers and sandwiches.”这里有个缺失的部分。

Predictive modeling and probabilistic risk assessment of in hamburgers and sandwiches.

作者信息

Choi Yun Hui, Park Jin Hwa, Kang Mi Seon, Yoon Yohan, Ha Sang-do, Kim Hyun Jung

机构信息

Research Group of Consumer Safety, Korea Food Research Institute, Wanju, 55365 Republic of Korea.

Department of Food Biotechnology, University of Science and Technology, Daejeon, 34113 Republic of Korea.

出版信息

Food Sci Biotechnol. 2021 Nov 23;30(13):1733-1742. doi: 10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z. eCollection 2021 Dec.

DOI:10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z
PMID:34925947
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8639865/
Abstract

UNLABELLED

This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for the survival of in hamburgers and sandwiches and to evaluate their microbial risk. The primary model was developed in hamburgers using 4 strains of at 5, 10, 15, 25 and 37 °C, and the kinetic parameters of the primary model were fitted well with the Weibull model (  ≥ 0.95). The secondary model was developed and validated in hamburgers and sandwiches using the Davey model, which was evaluated by B , A , and RMSE values within the acceptable range. A probabilistic risk model was developed and simulated using @Risk program to estimate the probability of infection (P ) of based on the data on prevalence (n = 100), time, temperature, and consumption of hamburgers and sandwiches (150.00 ± 20.96 g). Based on the simulation model, the mean exposure dose was 0.00976 CFU/g, and the estimated mean P was 1.78 × 10, which was very low in comparison with the current available data. The proposed model and the result can thus be useful to establish risk management options and microbial criteria for contamination in hamburgers and sandwiches

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z.

摘要

未标注

本研究旨在建立汉堡和三明治中[具体微生物名称未给出]存活的数学模型，并评估其微生物风险。主要模型是在汉堡中使用4株[具体微生物名称未给出]在5、10、15、25和37℃下建立的，主要模型的动力学参数与威布尔模型拟合良好（[相关系数未给出]≥0.95）。次要模型是在汉堡和三明治中使用戴维模型建立并验证的，通过B[相关指标未给出]、A[相关指标未给出]和RMSE值在可接受范围内进行评估。使用@Risk程序开发并模拟了概率风险模型，以根据汉堡和三明治的流行率（n = 100）、时间、温度和消费量（150.00±20.96克）数据估计[具体微生物名称未给出]感染概率（P[相关概率未给出]）。基于模拟模型，平均[具体微生物名称未给出]暴露剂量为0.00976 CFU/g，估计平均P[相关概率未给出]为1.78×10[具体数值未给出]，与现有数据相比非常低。因此，所提出的模型和结果可用于建立汉堡和三明治中[具体微生物名称未给出]污染的风险管理选项和微生物标准。

补充信息

在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10068-021-01000-z获取的补充材料。