Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, 137 Mulford Hall No. 3114, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2009 Nov;24(11):625-33. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.05.009. Epub 2009 Aug 14.
The difficulty of making valid comparisons between historical and contemporary data is an obstacle to documenting range change in relation to environmental modifications. Recent statistical advances use occupancy modeling to estimate simultaneously the probability of detection and the probability of occupancy, and enable unbiased comparisons between historical and modern data; however, they require repeated surveys at the same locations within a time period. We present two models for explicitly comparing occupancy between historical and modern eras, and discuss methods to measure range change. We suggest that keepers of historical data have crucial roles in curating and aiding accessibility to data, and we recommend that collectors of contemporary specimen data organize their sampling efforts to include repeated surveys to estimate detection probabilities.
在历史数据和当代数据之间进行有效比较的困难是记录与环境变化相关的范围变化的一个障碍。最近的统计进展使用占有模型来同时估计检测概率和占有概率，并使历史数据和现代数据之间能够进行无偏比较；但是，它们需要在一段时间内在同一地点进行重复调查。我们提出了两种用于明确比较历史和现代时期占有情况的模型，并讨论了衡量范围变化的方法。我们认为，历史数据的保存者在保存和帮助获取数据方面发挥着关键作用，我们建议当代标本数据的收集者组织他们的抽样工作，包括重复调查以估计检测概率。
