Department of Biological Sciences, Ecology and Genetics, University of Aarhus, Bldg. 1540, DK-8000 C, Denmark.
J Anim Sci. 2009 Nov;87(11):3525-35. doi: 10.2527/jas.2008-1760. Epub 2009 Aug 14.
In this study, we performed a population viability analysis on 3 domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus) of Danish origin, namely, the Frederiksborg, the Knabstrupper, and the Jutland breeds. Because of their small population sizes, these breeds are considered endangered. The Vortex software simulation package was used for the population viability analysis. First, we investigated the future viability of these breeds based on present demographic and environmental parameters. Second, a sensitivity analysis revealed the most important variables for the viability of these breeds. Third, we examined management scenarios in which one of the studbooks was closed. According to the Vortex analysis, 2 of the breeds (Knabstrupper and Jutland) will persist for the next 200 yr, whereas the smaller breed (Frederiksborg) could become extinct within 40 yr. The sensitivity analyses indicated that the variables concerning reproduction of the mares had the greatest impact, with the number of mares actively breeding being the most influential on the population forecasts. The results suggest that closing the Knabstrupper studbooks can be done only if increasing the number of mares actively breeding counteracts the loss of genetic variation attributable to such a management strategy. It is recommended, based on these results, that the number of Frederiksborg and Knabstrupper mares actively breeding must be increased to approximately 30% in the 2 breeds that are presently using only 13%, while leaving the third (Frederiksborg ) at its present 30% level. Monitoring of the breeds in the future, however, may be exploited to adjust the breeding strategies. We suggest that the large amount of data required by Vortex makes it very useful for analyzing domestic animals because of the comprehensive data material often available. The results of this analysis accord with other studies on the Prezwalski horse, indicating robustness in the parameter sensitivity for horses.
在这项研究中，我们对 3 个丹麦原产的家马品种（Equus caballus）进行了种群生存力分析，即弗雷德里克斯堡马、克纳夫拉普特马和日德兰马。由于它们的种群规模较小，这些品种被认为处于濒危状态。我们使用 Vortex 软件模拟包进行了种群生存力分析。首先，我们根据当前的人口和环境参数，研究了这些品种的未来生存能力。其次，敏感性分析揭示了对这些品种生存能力最重要的变量。第三，我们检查了在其中一个种马登记册关闭的情况下的管理方案。根据 Vortex 分析，其中 2 个品种（克纳夫拉普特马和日德兰马）将在未来 200 年内持续存在，而较小的品种（弗雷德里克斯堡马）可能在 40 年内灭绝。敏感性分析表明，与母马繁殖有关的变量影响最大，积极繁殖的母马数量对种群预测的影响最大。结果表明，只有在增加积极繁殖的母马数量可以抵消由于这种管理策略而导致的遗传变异损失的情况下，才能关闭克纳夫拉普特马的种马登记册。根据这些结果，建议将弗雷德里克斯堡马和克纳夫拉普特马积极繁殖的母马数量增加到目前分别使用 13%和 30%的两个品种中约 30%，而将第三个品种（弗雷德里克斯堡马）保持在目前的 30%水平。然而，未来对品种的监测可以用来调整繁殖策略。我们建议，Vortex 所需的大量数据使其非常适合分析家马，因为通常可以获得全面的数据资料。该分析的结果与对普氏野马的其他研究结果一致，表明马的参数敏感性稳健。
