Adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus: incidence and survival rates in New South Wales, 1972-2005.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate trends in the incidence of adenocarcinoma (AC) of the oesophagus in New South Wales, factors associated with a diagnosis of AC, and factors associated with survival of patients with AC.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We examined all cases of invasive oesophageal cancer recorded in the NSW Central Cancer Registry from 1972 to 2005. The Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia was used to assess geographical remoteness and the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage to assess socioeconomic status.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of AC; factors associated with diagnosis of AC and survival of patients with AC.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of oesophageal AC in NSW increased in both males and females (annual percentage change, 4.2% [95% CL, 2.7%, 5.8%] in males [1988-2005] and 4.3% [95% CL, 1.8%, 7.0%] in females [1983-2005]). A diagnosis of AC was significantly associated with being male (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.37 [95% CL, 3.84, 4.98]; P < 0.001); a younger age at diagnosis (P trend < 0.001); having distant rather than localised disease spread (AOR, 2.12 [95% CL, 1.82, 2.48]; P < 0.001); higher socioeconomic status (P trend < 0.001); and living in an inner regional area (AOR, 1.26 [95% CL, 1.11, 1.43]; P < 0.001) or outer regional area (AOR, 1.19 [95% CL, 1.00, 1.41]; P = 0.05) compared with a major city. Early diagnosis of AC was associated with substantial improvement in survival outcomes: patients with metastatic disease at diagnosis had a three times greater risk of dying than those with localised AC at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of AC is increasing in NSW. Possible contributing factors include increasing obesity, which is associated with increased incidence of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease. Survival may be improved by diagnosis at an earlier stage and changes in modifiable risk factors (eg, smoking, diet, exercise).