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进化的可预测性:透视后达尔文时代的世界。

The predictability of evolution: glimpses into a post-Darwinian world.

作者信息

Conway Morris Simon

机构信息

Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK.

出版信息

Naturwissenschaften. 2009 Nov;96(11):1313-37. doi: 10.1007/s00114-009-0607-9. Epub 2009 Sep 23.

DOI:10.1007/s00114-009-0607-9
PMID:19784612
Abstract

The very success of the Darwinian explanation, in not only demonstrating evolution from multiple lines of evidence but also in providing some plausible explanations, paradoxically seems to have served to have stifled explorations into other areas of investigation. The fact of evolution is now almost universally yoked to the assumption that its outcomes are random, trends are little more than drunkard's walks, and most evolutionary products are masterpieces of improvisation and far from perfect. But is this correct? Let us consider some alternatives. Is there evidence that evolution could in anyway be predictable? Can we identify alternative forms of biological organizations and if so how viable are they? Why are some molecules so extraordinarily versatile, while others can be spoken of as "molecules of choice"? How fortuitous are the major transitions in the history of life? What implications might this have for the Tree of Life? To what extent is evolutionary diversification constrained or facilitated by prior states? Are evolutionary outcomes merely sufficient or alternatively are they highly efficient, even superb? Here I argue that in sharp contradistinction to an orthodox Darwinian view, not only is evolution much more predictable than generally assumed but also investigation of its organizational substrates, including those of sensory systems, which indicates that it is possible to identify a predictability to the process and outcomes of evolution. If correct, the implications may be of some significance, not least in separating the unexceptional Darwinian mechanisms from underlying organizational principles, which may indicate evolutionary inevitabilities.

摘要

达尔文式解释的成功之处,不仅在于从多方面证据证明了进化,还在于提供了一些合理的解释。然而,自相矛盾的是,这似乎反而抑制了对其他研究领域的探索。如今,进化这一事实几乎普遍与这样的假设联系在一起:进化的结果是随机的,趋势不过是醉汉的步伐,大多数进化产物都是即兴之作,远非完美。但这正确吗?让我们考虑一些其他观点。是否有证据表明进化在任何方面都可以预测?我们能否识别出生物组织的其他形式?如果可以,它们的可行性如何?为什么有些分子具有非凡的多功能性,而其他分子却被称为“特定选择的分子”?生命史上的重大转变有多偶然?这对生命之树有何影响?进化多样化在多大程度上受到先前状态的限制或促进?进化结果仅仅是足够的,还是相反,它们是高效的,甚至是卓越的?在这里,我认为与正统的达尔文观点形成鲜明对比的是,进化不仅比一般认为的更具可预测性,而且对其组织基础的研究,包括感觉系统的组织基础,表明有可能识别出进化过程和结果的可预测性。如果这是正确的,其影响可能具有重要意义,尤其是在区分普通的达尔文机制和潜在的组织原则方面,这可能揭示进化的必然性。

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