Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, 126 Natural Resources Building, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA.
Environ Manage. 2010 Mar;45(3):454-65. doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9377-6. Epub 2009 Sep 26.
Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and historic resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land use and cover, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This article examines the causes of land use and land cover change (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to support necessary policy actions for more sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a repeated cross-sectional dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, we develop a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by distorted market signals. We believe that these and other findings carry important policy implications.
受人口密度高、经济快速但不均衡增长以及历史资源开发的影响，中国长江上游流域的土地利用和覆盖发生了显著变化，由此产生了严重的环境后果，如洪水、土壤侵蚀和栖息地丧失。本文考察了长江上游主要河段之一的金沙江流域土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LUCC）的原因，旨在更好地了解人类对动态 LUCC 过程的影响，并为更可持续的土地利用和环境保护提供必要的政策支持。本文使用了一个重复的横截面数据集，涵盖了 1975 年至 2000 年四个时期的 31 个县，开发了一个分数对数模型，以实证确定社会经济和制度因素对耕地、林地和草地变化的影响。结果表明，人口扩张、粮食自给自足和更好的市场准入推动了耕地的扩张，而工业发展则显著促进了林地的增加和其他土地利用类型的减少。同样，稳定的土地保有权对森林保护也有积极影响。此外，过去的土地利用决策受扭曲的市场信号的影响较小。我们认为，这些和其他发现具有重要的政策意义。
