Lu Shasha, Guan Xingliang, Zhou Min, Wang Yang
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Room C0514, No. 35, Tsinghua East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China,
Environ Manage. 2014 May;53(5):894-912. doi: 10.1007/s00267-014-0247-5. Epub 2014 Feb 14.
A large number of mathematical models have been developed to support land resource allocation decisions and land management needs; however, few of them can address various uncertainties that exist in relation to many factors presented in such decisions (e.g., land resource availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and social demands, as well as ecological requirements). In this study, a multi-objective interval-stochastic land resource allocation model (MOISLAM) was developed for tackling uncertainty that presents as discrete intervals and/or probability distributions. The developed model improves upon the existing multi-objective programming and inexact optimization approaches. The MOISLAM not only considers economic factors, but also involves food security and eco-environmental constraints; it can, therefore, effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land resource management system. Moreover, the model can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or the risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. In this study, the MOISLAM was applied to a real case of long-term urban land resource allocation planning in Suzhou, in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. The results are considered useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify a desirable land resource allocation strategy under uncertainty.
为了支持土地资源配置决策和土地管理需求，人们已经开发了大量的数学模型；然而，其中很少有模型能够处理与这类决策中呈现的许多因素相关的各种不确定性（例如，土地资源可用性、土地需求、土地利用模式、社会需求以及生态要求）。在本研究中，开发了一种多目标区间随机土地资源配置模型（MOISLAM），用于处理以离散区间和/或概率分布形式呈现的不确定性。所开发的模型改进了现有的多目标规划和非精确优化方法。MOISLAM不仅考虑经济因素，还涉及粮食安全和生态环境约束；因此，它能够有效反映土地资源管理系统中不同方面之间的各种相互关系。此外，该模型还可以帮助检验在不确定性下满足系统约束的可靠性（或违反系统约束的风险）。在本研究中，MOISLAM被应用于中国长江三角洲地区苏州市长期城市土地资源配置规划的一个实际案例。获得了与不同约束违反风险水平相关的区间解。研究结果被认为有助于在各种系统条件下生成一系列决策备选方案，从而帮助决策者在不确定性下确定理想的土地资源配置策略。
