[Diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands: estimate of the current disease burden and prognosis for 2025].

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the number of people with diagnosed diabetes mellitus in the Netherlands in 2007 using a new method; to describe trends in the past; to predict the situation in 2025.

DESIGN

Model calculations.

METHODS

Based on five general practice records (Nijmegen Continuous Morbidity Registration [CMR], Netherlands Information Network of General Practice [LINH], Limburg Family Practice Registration Network [RNH-Limburg], Registration Network University Family Practices, Leiden and its environs [RNUH-LEO], and the transition project) the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes in the Netherlands in 2007 was estimated. Trends in the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes were estimated from the five records over the period 2000-2007. The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in 2025 was estimated using the Dutch Chronic Diseases Model, which takes into account demographic developments and a further increase in obesity in the Netherlands in the future.

RESULTS

In 2007, 740,000 persons (95% CI: 665,000-824,000) with diabetes were undergoing care. The incidence of new diabetes during 2007 was 71,000 (95% CI: 57,000-90,000). The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes increased by almost 80% in 2000-2007. The model projection resulted in an estimate of 1.3 million people with diagnosed diabetes in 2025, i.e. 8% of the Dutch population. There is a high level of uncertainty about these estimates.

CONCLUSION

The increase in the number of diabetes patients in 2025 has consequences for care and will require measures to be taken in coming years in the areas of prevalence and care organisation.