Senckenberg Institute, Department for Marine Research, Südstrand 40, 26382 Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2010 Jan;60(1):58-68. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2009.09.001. Epub 2009 Sep 30.
An essential prerequisite for the assessment of the ecological quality of marine ecosystems is the understanding of the natural variability and its effect on the performance of quality indices. This study is focused on the long-term natural variability of diversity, biotic and multimetric indices by using long-term macrofauna data of a coastal area in the southern North Sea (1978-2005). The univariate and most biotic and multimetric indices respond significantly on specific natural disturbance events such as cold winters, but the strength of response varied between indices as well as between events. As a result, the ecological quality status can decrease over a range of 3 (out of 5) classification units. The overall ecological quality was good to high, but an increase of indices occurred from the mid 1980s onwards due to changes in the climate regime. This long-term variability has to be considered within ecological quality assessment schemes.
评估海洋生态系统生态质量的一个基本前提是了解自然变异性及其对质量指数表现的影响。本研究通过使用北海南部沿海地区的长期大型动物数据（1978-2005 年），重点研究了多样性、生物和多指标指数的长期自然变异性。单变量和大多数生物和多指标指数对特定的自然干扰事件（如寒冷的冬季）有显著的响应，但响应强度在指数之间以及事件之间有所不同。因此，生态质量状况可能会在 5 个分类单元中的 3 个范围内下降。整体生态质量良好到高，但由于气候制度的变化，自 20 世纪 80 年代中期以来，指数有所增加。在生态质量评估方案中必须考虑这种长期变异性。
