Duffy Stephen W, Raji Olaide Y, Agbaje Olorunsola F, Allgood Prue C, Cassidy Adrian, Field John K
Cancer Research UK Centre for EMS, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Charterhouse Square, London EC1M 6BQ, UK.
Expert Rev Anticancer Ther. 2009 Oct;9(10):1467-72. doi: 10.1586/era.09.87.
Computed tomography screening for lung cancer is now being tested in a number of international trials. The long-term success of the approach in the future National Screening Programme is dependent upon identifying populations at sufficient risk of lung cancer that the benefit-harm ratio of the intervention is likely to be high. There are a number of lung cancer risk prediction models currently available. We review these, and demonstrate, using the Liverpool Lung Project risk prediction model as a case study, the potential for use of a risk prediction model in the design of a randomized trial of lung cancer screening and in the planning of a service screening program.
目前，肺癌的计算机断层扫描筛查正在多项国际试验中进行测试。在未来的国家筛查计划中，该方法能否长期成功取决于能否识别出肺癌风险足够高的人群，从而使干预措施的利弊比可能较高。目前有多种肺癌风险预测模型可供使用。我们对这些模型进行综述，并以利物浦肺癌项目风险预测模型为例，展示在肺癌筛查随机试验设计和服务筛查项目规划中使用风险预测模型的潜力。
