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ABC:一种用于分析群体数据的有用的贝叶斯工具。

ABC: a useful Bayesian tool for the analysis of population data.

机构信息

School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AJ, UK.

出版信息

Infect Genet Evol. 2010 Aug;10(6):826-33. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2009.10.010. Epub 2009 Oct 30.

Abstract

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a recently developed technique for solving problems in Bayesian inference. Although typically less accurate than, for example, the frequently used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, they have greater flexibility because they do not require the specification of a likelihood function. For this reason considerable amounts of data can be analysed and more complex models can be used providing, thereby, a potential better fit of the model to the data. Since its first applications in the late 1990s its usage has been steadily increasing. The framework was originally developed to solve problems in population genetics. However, as its efficiency was recognized its popularity increased and, consequently, it started to be used in fields as diverse as phylogenetics, ecology, conservation, molecular evolution and epidemiology. While the ABC algorithm is still being greatly studied and alterations to it are being proposed, the statistical approach has already reached a level of maturity well demonstrated by the number of related computer packages that are being developed. As improved ABC algorithms are proposed, the expansion of the use of this method can only increase. In this paper we are going to depict the context that led to the development of ABC focusing on the field of infectious disease epidemiology. We are then going to describe its current usage in such field and present its most recent developments.

摘要

近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)是一种最近发展起来的贝叶斯推断问题的解决方案。虽然通常比例如经常使用的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法的准确性要低,但它们具有更大的灵活性,因为它们不需要指定似然函数。由于这个原因,可以分析大量的数据,并可以使用更复杂的模型,从而为模型与数据的拟合提供更好的效果。自 20 世纪 90 年代末首次应用以来,其使用量一直在稳步增加。该框架最初是为了解决群体遗传学中的问题而开发的。然而,随着其效率得到认可,其受欢迎程度不断提高,因此它开始被用于系统发育学、生态学、保护生物学、分子进化和流行病学等多个领域。虽然 ABC 算法仍在被广泛研究,并提出了对其的修改,但该统计方法已经达到了相当成熟的水平,这从正在开发的相关计算机包的数量上就可以明显看出。随着改进的 ABC 算法的提出,这种方法的使用范围只会不断扩大。本文将描述导致 ABC 发展的背景,重点关注传染病流行病学领域。然后,我们将描述其在该领域的当前应用,并介绍其最新进展。

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