Wilkinson D, Bennett R, McFarlane I, Rushton S, Shirley M, Smith G C
Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York YO41 1LZ, UK.
J Wildl Dis. 2009 Oct;45(4):1062-88. doi: 10.7589/0090-3558-45.4.1062.
Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.
牛结核病是一种重要的经济性疾病。獾（欧洲獾）是英国许多牛群结核病爆发所涉及的野生动物传染源，广泛捕杀獾是减少该疾病的一个具有争议性的选择。构建了一个獾与牛群的种群模型，用以模拟结核病的流行病学情况；獾的生态，包括捕杀后的社会扰动；以及与结核病相关的农场管理。在该模型中纳入了一个经济成本效益模块，以评估捕杀獾是否能带来经济效益。模型结果有力地表明，虽然如果限制扰动，广泛捕杀獾可能会降低牛群中的发病率，但总体而言，经济损失比收益更有可能出现。獾种群的扰动是决定控制成败的关键因素。该模型凸显了一些关于扰动的空间和时间特征方面的重要知识空白，值得进一步研究。
