Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai University, Shizuoka, Japan.
Proc Jpn Acad Ser B Phys Biol Sci. 2009;85(9):435-42. doi: 10.2183/pjab.85.435.
Simultaneous anomalous change of geoelectric field was observed on January 17, 1999 at three far-distant stations in Nagano Prefecture, Japan. Eleven days after the anomalous change, an earthquake swarm with a M4.8 main shock started at a location within the triangle formed by the three stations. This change was rectangular in shape like the VAN-type anomalous change in Greece. The anomaly could be detected because it occurred at midnight when the noise level was low. In fact, there were a few M4-class earthquakes in the area for which no preceding anomalous electric changes were observed, perhaps because the changes occurred during the noisy daytime. In this paper, we examine if it is possible to extract the signal with the size of the anomalous change on January 17, 1999 from the noisy daytime data by Independent Component Analysis. For this purpose, a simulated noise was embedded in the real daytime data which were highly influenced by not only artificial noise but also by geomagnetic disturbances and rainfall. Even when the influence of geomagnetic disturbance or rainfall was large, the anomalous change was clearly recognized at least at two stations in all cases.
1999 年 1 月 17 日,在日本长野县的三个远距离观测站同时观测到地电场的异常变化。异常变化发生 11 天后,在由三个观测站构成的三角形区域内发生了震级为 4.8 级的地震群。这种变化的形状呈长方形,类似于希腊的 VAN 型异常变化。由于异常变化发生在午夜,噪声水平较低,因此可以检测到这种变化。事实上,该地区发生了一些震级为 4 级的地震,没有观测到先前的异常电变化,这可能是因为变化发生在嘈杂的白天。在本文中,我们通过独立成分分析检查是否可以从受人为噪声以及地磁干扰和降雨影响的嘈杂白天数据中提取 1999 年 1 月 17 日的异常变化大小的信号。为此,在受地磁干扰或降雨影响较大的真实白天数据中嵌入了模拟噪声。即使在这种情况下,异常变化在至少两个观测站都清晰可辨。