1997年德克萨斯州摩托车头盔法对摩托车碰撞致死率的影响。

The effect of the 1997 Texas motorcycle helmet law on motorcycle crash fatalities.

作者信息

Bavon Al, Standerfer Christina

机构信息

University of Arkansas Clinton School of Public Service, Little Rock, AR 72201, USA.

出版信息

South Med J. 2010 Jan;103(1):11-7. doi: 10.1097/SMJ.0b013e3181c35653.

DOI:10.1097/SMJ.0b013e3181c35653

PMID:19996860

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

This study seeks to determine the effect of the Texas motorcycle helmet law on fatalities since the repeal of the universal helmet law in 1997.

METHODS

Texas monthly motorcycle accident data between 1994 and 2004 were obtained from the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and supplemented with motorcycle registration data from the Texas Department of Transportation. An ARIMA model was used to estimate the impact of the law.

RESULTS

A sharp increase in fatality rates occurred immediately following the implementation of the law in September 1997. Deaths increased by 30%, fatality rates per motorcycle registrations increased by 15.2%, and fatality rates per vehicle miles traveled increased by 25% after repeal. Helmet use decreased from 77% in 1996 to 63% in 1997 and 36% in 1998 and thereafter. The parameter estimates of the ARIMA model (0,0,0) (0,1,1) show that the change in the law led to statistically significant increases of 2.3 fatalities and 1.18 fatality rate per 100 billion vehicle miles traveled.

CONCLUSIONS

The repeal of the universal helmet law in Texas in 1997 has had a significant adverse effect on motorcyclist fatalities in Texas.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在确定自1997年通用头盔法废除以来，德克萨斯州摩托车头盔法对死亡人数的影响。

方法

从美国国家公路交通安全管理局的死亡分析报告系统（FARS）获取1994年至2004年德克萨斯州每月的摩托车事故数据，并补充德克萨斯州交通部的摩托车注册数据。使用自回归积分移动平均模型（ARIMA）来估计该法律的影响。

结果

1997年9月该法律实施后，死亡率立即急剧上升。废除该法律后，死亡人数增加了30%，每摩托车注册的死亡率增加了15.2%，每行驶车辆英里数的死亡率增加了25%。头盔使用率从1996年的77%降至1997年的63%，1998年及之后降至36%。ARIMA模型（0,0,0）（0,1,1）的参数估计表明，法律的变化导致每1000亿车辆英里行驶里程的死亡人数和死亡率分别显著增加2.3人和1.18人。