Zhu He, Wilson Fernando A, Stimpson Jim P, Hilsenrath Peter E
School of Medicine, Duke University, 201 Trent Dr, Durham, NC, 27710, USA.
College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, 984350 Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, NE, 68198-4350, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2015 Dec;2(1):23. doi: 10.1186/s40621-015-0054-3. Epub 2015 Sep 17.
We examined whether sales of new motorcycles was a mechanism to explain the relationship between motorcycle fatalities and gasoline prices.
The data came from the Motorcycle Industry Council, Energy Information Administration and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1984-2009. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regressions estimated the effect of inflation-adjusted gasoline price on motorcycle sales and logistic regressions estimated odds ratios (ORs) between new and old motorcycle fatalities when gasoline prices increase.
New motorcycle sales were positively correlated with gasoline prices (r = 0.78) and new motorcycle fatalities (r = 0.92). ARIMA analysis estimated that a US$1 increase in gasoline prices would result in 295,000 new motorcycle sales and, consequently, 233 new motorcycle fatalities. Compared to crashes on older motorcycle models, those on new motorcycles were more likely to be young riders, occur in the afternoon, in clear weather, with a large engine displacement, and without alcohol involvement. Riders on new motorcycles were more likely to be in fatal crashes relative to older motorcycles (OR 1.14, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.28) when gasoline prices increase.
Our findings suggest that, in response to increasing gasoline prices, people tend to purchase new motorcycles, and this is accompanied with significantly increased crash risk. There are several policy mechanisms that can be used to lower the risk of motorcycle crash injuries through the mechanism of gas prices and motorcycle sales such as raising awareness of motorcycling risks, enhancing licensing and testing requirements, limiting motorcycle power-to-weight ratios for inexperienced riders, and developing mandatory training programs for new riders.
我们研究了新摩托车销量是否是解释摩托车死亡人数与汽油价格之间关系的一种机制。
数据来自摩托车工业理事会、能源信息管理局和1984 - 2009年的死亡分析报告系统。自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）回归估计了经通胀调整的汽油价格对摩托车销量的影响，逻辑回归估计了汽油价格上涨时新、旧摩托车死亡人数之间的比值比（OR）。
新摩托车销量与汽油价格呈正相关（r = 0.78），与新摩托车死亡人数也呈正相关（r = 0.92）。ARIMA分析估计，汽油价格每上涨1美元，将导致29.5万辆新摩托车销量增加，进而导致233起新的摩托车死亡事故。与旧款摩托车事故相比，新款摩托车事故的骑手更可能是年轻人，事故多发生在下午、天气晴朗时，发动机排量大，且无酒精影响。当汽油价格上涨时，新款摩托车骑手发生致命事故的可能性相对于旧款摩托车更高（OR 1.14，95%置信区间（CI）1.02 - 1.28）。
我们的研究结果表明，随着汽油价格上涨，人们倾向于购买新摩托车，这伴随着碰撞风险显著增加。有几种政策机制可用于通过汽油价格和摩托车销量机制降低摩托车碰撞伤害风险，例如提高对摩托车骑行风险的认识、加强执照和测试要求、限制无经验骑手的摩托车功率重量比，以及为新骑手制定强制性培训计划。
