Selection for fitness at the individual or population levels: modelling effects of genetic modifications in microalgae on productivity and environmental safety.

A mechanistic model of microalgae is used to explore the implications of modifying microalgal chlorophyll content and photosynthetic efficiency with an aim to optimising commercial biomass production. The models show the potential for a 10 fold increase in microalgae productivity in genetically modified versus unmodified configurations, while also enabling the use of bioreactors of greater optical depth operating at lower dilution rates. Analysis suggests that natural selection of a trait benefiting the individual (high Chl:C(max), i.e., high antennae size) conflicts with artificial selection of a trait (low Chl:C(max)) of most benefit to production at the population level. The implication is that GM strains rather than strains selected from nature will be most beneficial for commercial algal biofuels production. Further, escaped GM algae populations may, depending on the specific nature of the modification, be quickly out-competed by the natural forms because individually a high Chl:C is beneficial in low light environments. However, it remains possible that changes in biochemical composition associated with genetic modification of photosystem competence, or with other selection processes to enhance commercial gain, may adversely affect the value of such organisms as prey for zooplankton, leading to the unwanted generation of future harmful algae.