Faculty of Medical Sciences, Institute of Cellular Biology, University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2010 Mar;19(2):94-9. doi: 10.1097/CEJ.0b013e328333fb52.
To estimate the mortality trends and spatial patterns for breast cancer in Córdoba (Argentina) in the period 1986-2006 taking into account age, calendar year, and birth cohort effects. Mortality data were provided by the Department of Statistics, Ministry of Health of Córdoba. Time trends in breast cancer mortality were analyzed using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort models. A random-intercept log-linear model was also used to assess the spatial pattern. Breast cancer age standardized mortality rates rose by 1.4% (95% confidence interval 0.2-2.6) per year from 1986 to 1997, and thereafter both breast and total cancer rates declined [-2.5% (-4 to -1.0) and -1.6% (-2.3 to -0.8), respectively]. In age-specific analysis the decline was mainly at age 20-49 years [-2.4% (-4 to -0.9)]. Rates over most recent calendar years decreased, mainly in the most urbanized districts. Age-period-cohort models for Córdoba province and Córdoba Capital showed a favorable cohort effect for generations born after 1955. A decreasing trend in breast cancer mortality was found in Córdoba, especially at younger ages and in most urbanized areas. This could be attributed to some unidentified favorable factors in generations born after 1955.
评估 1986-2006 年期间科尔多瓦（阿根廷）乳腺癌的死亡率趋势和空间分布模式，考虑年龄、日历年份和出生队列的影响。死亡率数据由科尔多瓦卫生部统计司提供。使用 Joinpoint 分析和年龄-时期-队列模型分析乳腺癌死亡率的时间趋势。还使用随机截距对数线性模型评估空间模式。从 1986 年到 1997 年，乳腺癌年龄标准化死亡率每年上升 1.4%（95%置信区间 0.2-2.6），此后乳腺癌和总癌症发病率均下降[-2.5%（-4 至-1.0）和-1.6%（-2.3 至-0.8）]。在年龄特异性分析中，下降主要发生在 20-49 岁年龄组[-2.4%（-4 至-0.9）]。最近几年的发病率下降，主要集中在城市化程度较高的地区。科尔多瓦省和科尔多瓦首都的年龄-时期-队列模型显示，1955 年后出生的世代具有有利的队列效应。在科尔多瓦发现乳腺癌死亡率呈下降趋势，尤其是在年轻人群和大多数城市化地区。这可能归因于 1955 年后出生的世代中一些未确定的有利因素。
