Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139-4307, USA.
Environ Health Perspect. 2010 Jan;118(1):137-43. doi: 10.1289/ehp.0900811.
Recent policies attempting to reduce adverse effects of methylmercury exposure from fish consumption in the United States have targeted reductions in anthropogenic emissions from U.S. sources.
To analyze the prospects for future North American and international emissions controls, we assessed the potential contributions of anthropogenic, historical, and natural mercury to exposure trajectories in the U.S. population over a 40-year time horizon.
We used models that simulate global atmospheric chemistry (GEOS-Chem); the fate, transport, and bioaccumulation of mercury in four types of freshwater ecosystems; and mercury cycling among different ocean basins. We considered effects on mercury exposures in the U.S. population based on dietary survey information and consumption data from the sale of commercial market fish.
Although North American emissions controls may reduce mercury exposure by up to 50% for certain highly exposed groups such as indigenous peoples in the Northeast, the potential effects of emissions controls on populations consuming marine fish from the commercial market are less certain because of limited measurements.
Despite uncertainties in the exposure pathway, results indicate that a combination of North American and international emissions controls with adaptation strategies is necessary to manage methylmercury risks across various demographic groups in the United States.
最近，美国试图通过减少人为排放源来降低鱼类消费中甲基汞暴露的负面影响，从而制定了相关政策。
为分析未来北美和国际排放控制的前景，我们评估了人为、历史和自然汞对美国人口在 40 年时间内暴露轨迹的潜在贡献。
我们使用了模拟全球大气化学（GEOS-Chem）的模型；四种淡水生态系统中汞的归宿、迁移和生物累积；以及不同海洋盆地之间的汞循环。我们根据饮食调查信息和商业市场鱼类销售数据，考虑了对美国人口汞暴露的影响。
尽管北美排放控制可能会使某些高度暴露人群（如东北部的土著人民）的汞暴露减少多达 50%，但由于测量有限，排放控制对食用商业市场海洋鱼类的人群的影响尚不确定。
尽管暴露途径存在不确定性，但结果表明，需要采取北美和国际排放控制与适应战略的组合，以管理美国不同人群的甲基汞风险。
