Fordyce E J, Blum S, Balanon A, Stoneburner R L
New York City Department of Health, AIDS Research Unit, New York 10013.
Am J Epidemiol. 1991 Mar 15;133(6):590-8. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115931.
There are few data available on the dynamics of heterosexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among women whose only risk factor is sexual contact with intravenous drug-using males. Unlike models which rely on unconfirmed estimates regarding sexual partner selectivity and contact rates between infected and uninfected populations, data from a survey conducted between November 1988 and February 1989 of 1,842 women in New York City provide empirical values for these variables which the authors use in a straightforward estimation model. The authors estimate that the number of new infections among women aged 15-44 years in New York City during 1988 was between 876 and 1,668 and that the number of women already infected through heterosexual contact with male intravenous drug users is between 5,390 and 10,230 among the 1,844,285 women in this age group. These conclusions indicate that male-to-female transmission in New York City is of substantial magnitude and that prevention efforts among male intravenous drug users and their female sexual partners must be appropriately directed.
关于仅因与静脉注射吸毒男性发生性接触这一风险因素而感染人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的女性中异性传播动态的数据很少。与那些依赖关于性伴侣选择以及感染人群与未感染人群之间接触率的未经证实估计的模型不同，1988年11月至1989年2月在纽约市对1842名女性进行的一项调查数据为这些变量提供了实证值，作者将其用于一个直接估计模型中。作者估计，1988年纽约市15 - 44岁女性中的新感染人数在876至1668人之间，在该年龄组的1844285名女性中，已经通过与男性静脉注射吸毒者异性接触而感染HIV的女性人数在5390至10230人之间。这些结论表明，纽约市的男性向女性传播规模相当大，必须对男性静脉注射吸毒者及其女性性伴侣进行适当的预防工作。
