Department of Economics, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON, P7B 5E1, Canada.
Eur J Health Econ. 2010 Dec;11(6):569-84. doi: 10.1007/s10198-009-0214-x. Epub 2010 Jan 12.
The fiscal sustainability of government health expenditures is defined as the gap between growth rates of spending and measures of the resource base. The results show that over the period 1965-2008, real per capita Canadian provincial government health spending has grown at rates that exceed growth in basic measures of the resource base such as per capita gross domestic product (GDP), per capita federal transfers and per capita provincial government revenues. Forecasts of future spending to 2035 using determinant regression and growth rate extrapolation techniques show that Canadian provincial government health spending is projected to continue rising in the future and its share of provincial GDP will rise. While the amount spent on health is ultimately a public policy choice, provincial government health spending also cannot continue growing faster than the resource base indefinitely.
政府卫生支出的财政可持续性被定义为支出增长率与资源基础衡量指标之间的差距。结果表明，在 1965 年至 2008 年期间，加拿大省级政府实际人均卫生支出的增长率超过了人均国内生产总值（GDP）、人均联邦转移支付和人均省级政府收入等资源基础基本衡量指标的增长率。使用决定因素回归和增长率外推技术对 2035 年未来支出的预测表明，加拿大省级政府卫生支出预计将在未来继续增长，其在省级 GDP 中的份额也将上升。虽然卫生支出的数额最终是一个公共政策选择，但省级政府卫生支出的增长速度也不能无限期地超过资源基础。
