Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A11 DaTun Road, ChaoYang District, Beijing, 100101, People's Republic of China.
Environ Manage. 2010 Oct;46(4):555-64. doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9418-1. Epub 2010 Jan 20.
Assessment of the potential CO(2) emission reduction by development of non-grain-based ethanol in China is valuable for both setting up countermeasures against climate change and formulating bioethanol policies. Based on the land occupation property, feedstock classification and selection are conducted, identifying sweet sorghum, cassava, and sweet potato as plantation feedstocks cultivated from low-quality arable marginal land resources and molasses and agricultural straws as nonplantation feedstocks derived from agricultural by-products. The feedstock utilization degree, CO(2) reduction coefficient of bioethanol, and assessment model of CO(2) emission reduction potential of bioethanol are proposed and established to assess the potential CO(2) emission reduction by development of non-grain-based bioethanol. The results show that China can obtain emission reduction potentials of 10.947 and 49.027 Mt CO(2) with non-grain-based bioethanol in 2015 and 2030, which are much higher than the present capacity, calculated as 1.95 Mt. It is found that nonplantation feedstock can produce more bioethanol so as to obtain a higher potential than plantation feedstock in both 2015 and 2030. Another finding is that developing non-grain-based bioethanol can make only a limited contribution to China's greenhouse gas emission reduction. Moreover, this study reveals that the regions with low and very low potentials for emission reduction will dominate the spatial distribution in 2015, and regions with high and very high potentials will be the majority in 2030.
评估中国发展非粮基乙醇的潜在 CO2减排量对于制定应对气候变化的对策和制定生物乙醇政策都具有重要意义。基于土地占用特性，进行了原料分类和选择，确定甜高粱、木薯和甘薯为低质量耕地边际土地资源种植的种植原料，糖蜜和农业秸秆为农业副产物衍生的非种植原料。提出并建立了生物乙醇的原料利用程度、CO2减排系数和生物乙醇减排潜力评估模型，以评估非粮基生物乙醇发展的潜在 CO2减排量。结果表明，中国在 2015 年和 2030 年可以分别通过非粮基生物乙醇获得 10.947 和 49.027 Mt CO2的减排潜力，远高于目前的 1.95 Mt 产能。研究发现，非种植原料可以生产更多的生物乙醇，因此在 2015 年和 2030 年，非种植原料的潜在减排量都高于种植原料。另一个发现是，发展非粮基生物乙醇对中国温室气体减排的贡献有限。此外，本研究表明，在 2015 年，减排潜力较低和极低的地区将主导空间分布，而在 2030 年，减排潜力较高和极高的地区将占多数。
