Mirón Isidro J, Montero Juan Carlos, Criado-Alvarez Juan José, Díaz Julio, Linares Cristina
Distrito de Salud de Torrijos, Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social, Toledo, Spain.
Gac Sanit. 2010 Mar-Apr;24(2):117-22. doi: 10.1016/j.gaceta.2009.10.016. Epub 2010 Jan 27.
To determine time trends and the geographical distribution of mortality trigger temperature thresholds due to extreme temperatures in Castile-La Mancha (central Spain) between 1975 and 2003.
The analysis was divided into three periods (1975-1984, 1985-1994 and 1995-2003) for each province of the region. Daily mortality due to organic causes (dependent variable) was modelled using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) procedures. The resulting residual series was related to the maximum temperature series grouped in 2 degrees C intervals to obtain a threshold temperature for cold or heat when the residuals rose significantly (p<0,05) above the mean residual mortality value of the corresponding study period.
Mortality trigger temperature thresholds decreased over time in Castile- La Mancha. In Toledo, the trigger temperature diminished from 40 degrees C to 38 degrees C. In Cuenca and Guadalajara, threshold temperatures for heat events were obtained in the last few decades but not in the first. These thresholds varied from the 92nd percentile in Cuenca to the 98th percentile in Albacete in the last decade. No threshold temperatures for cold spells were observed in any province or period.
Castile-La Mancha registered an upward trend in the relationship between high temperatures and mortality, probably due to population aging. This trend could have been influenced by the increased frequency of extremely hot days. Prevention plans should be periodically reviewed.
确定1975年至2003年间西班牙中部卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰地区因极端温度导致的死亡触发温度阈值的时间趋势和地理分布。
对该地区的每个省份，分析分为三个时期（1975 - 1984年、1985 - 1994年和1995 - 2003年）。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）程序对因器质性原因导致的每日死亡率（因变量）进行建模。将得到的残差序列与以2摄氏度为间隔分组的最高温度序列相关联，以在残差显著高于（p<0.05）相应研究时期的平均残差死亡率值时获得寒冷或炎热的阈值温度。
卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰地区的死亡触发温度阈值随时间下降。在托莱多，触发温度从40摄氏度降至38摄氏度。在昆卡和瓜达拉哈拉，炎热事件的阈值温度在过去几十年中得到，但在最初几十年中未得到。在过去十年中，这些阈值从昆卡的第92百分位数到阿尔瓦塞特的第98百分位数不等。在任何省份或时期都未观察到寒冷天气的阈值温度。
卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰地区高温与死亡率之间的关系呈上升趋势，可能是由于人口老龄化。这种趋势可能受到极热天数增加的影响。预防计划应定期审查。
