Health Sciences Institute, Castile-La Mancha Regional Health & Social Welfare Authority, Talavera de la Reina (Toledo), Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2010 Mar 1;408(7):1544-50. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.01.013. Epub 2010 Feb 4.
Following the 2003 heat wave, many European countries implemented heat-wave prevention plans. A number of aspects can prove fundamental in determining the effectiveness of such plans, and of these we sought to analyse the criteria used to define threshold temperatures and trigger a higher level of intervention.
Retrospective study of the days on which heat-wave thresholds were exceeded during the period 1974-2003 was conducted. We compared when and at what level the heat-wave prevention plan would have been activated using a statistical-meteorological criterion (as applied by the Spanish Ministry of Health & Consumer Affairs) versus a temperature-mortality criterion.
The number of days on which the threshold was exceeded was far higher when the temperature-mortality criterion was applied. The temperature percentile at which a heat wave occurred was different for each province analysed and was inversely proportional to its respective ageing index. Using both criteria, there was an increase in heat-wave days per decade.
The establishment of a heat-wave threshold temperature must be based on knowledge of the cause-effect relationship between temperature and the health of a given population. Mortality is an appropriate indicator of population health. The future effects of climate change render it essential for this relationship to be studied on a local scale, so as to enable truly efficient prevention plans to be drawn up.
2003 年热浪过后，许多欧洲国家都制定了预防热浪的计划。有许多方面可以证明这些计划的有效性，我们分析了用于定义阈值温度和触发更高干预水平的标准。
回顾性研究了 1974 年至 2003 年期间超过热浪阈值的天数。我们比较了使用统计气象标准（西班牙卫生部和消费者事务部采用）和温度死亡率标准时，何时以及以何种水平激活热浪预防计划。
当使用温度死亡率标准时，超过阈值的天数要高得多。发生热浪的温度百分位因分析的每个省份而异，且与其各自的老龄化指数成反比。使用这两个标准，每十年的热浪天数都会增加。
建立热浪阈值温度必须基于对特定人群的温度与健康之间的因果关系的了解。死亡率是人口健康的一个适当指标。气候变化的未来影响使得在当地范围内研究这种关系至关重要，以便能够制定出真正有效的预防计划。
