University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Life Sciences, Department of Large Animal Sciences, Dk-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Jun;138(6):843-52. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810000178. Epub 2010 Jan 29.
Bangladesh faced two epidemic waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in two consecutive years. The peaks of the waves were observed in February-July 2007 and January-April 2008, respectively. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of the 293 outbreaks in 143 subdistricts in 2007 and 2008. Global clustering assessed by K-function was seen at distances 150-300 km between subdistricts. Significant local clusters were detected by space-time scan statistics. In both waves, significant primary clusters of HPAI outbreaks were identified in the central part of the country dominated by commercial production systems and in the northwestern part primarily in backyard production systems. Secondary clusters varied from the northwestern part in 2007 and the southern part in 2008. The findings are highly relevant for the successful planning and implementation of control, prevention and surveillance strategies by highlighting areas where detailed investigations should be initiated.
孟加拉国在连续两年中遭遇了两波高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1 的流行。这两波的高峰期分别出现在 2007 年 2 月至 7 月和 2008 年 1 月至 4 月。我们研究了 2007 年和 2008 年在 143 个分区内的 293 起暴发的时空模式。K 函数评估的全局聚类出现在分区之间 150-300 公里的距离上。时空扫描统计检测到了显著的局部聚类。在这两波疫情中，在以商业生产系统为主的该国中部地区和以后院生产系统为主的西北部地区，都发现了高致病性禽流感暴发的显著原发性聚集。继发性聚集在 2007 年出现在西北部地区，在 2008 年出现在南部地区。这些发现对于成功规划和实施控制、预防和监测策略非常重要，突出了需要进行详细调查的地区。
