Epidemiology Unit, National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, Plateau State, Nigeria.
Prev Vet Med. 2012 Feb 1;103(2-3):170-7. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.10.001. Epub 2011 Nov 12.
From 2006 to 2008, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype occurred among poultry in Nigeria. We described the spatio-temporal patterns of the HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Nigeria. Data of suspected and laboratory confirmed outbreaks maintained at the National Veterinary Research Institute Vom was analyzed using descriptive and exploratory analyses, GIS mapping, global and local spatial statistical analyses using the Cuzick-Edwards' (C-E) test and SaTScan Space-Time Scan Statistic. A total of 1654 suspected outbreaks were reported from 32 of the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), 299 were confirmed HPAI H5N1 positive from 27 states and FCT. The outbreaks occurred as three distinct epidemic waves with peak periods of January-March mainly in the North-West, North-Central and North-East regions during 2006 and 2007 and July-September in the South-West and South-South regions in 2007. Three spatio-temporal clusters were identified extending across States and international borders, consistent with disease transmission occurring through local and long-distance spread. This calls for enhanced strategies by the states and regional authorities to improve surveillance, prevention and control measures at the states, national and international levels.
从 2006 年到 2008 年，尼日利亚的家禽中发生了高致病性禽流感病毒 H5N1 亚型的爆发。我们描述了尼日利亚高致病性禽流感 H5N1 爆发的时空模式。对国家兽医研究所 Vom 保存的疑似和实验室确诊爆发的数据进行了描述性和探索性分析、GIS 制图、全局和局部空间统计分析，使用了 Cuzick-Edwards（C-E）检验和 SaTScan 时空扫描统计。从 36 个州和联邦首都区（FCT）中的 32 个州报告了总共 1654 起疑似爆发，其中 27 个州和 FCT 确认了 299 起高致病性禽流感 H5N1 阳性爆发。这些爆发发生了三次不同的疫情波，高峰期为 2006 年和 2007 年 1 月至 3 月，主要在西北部、中北部和东北部地区，以及 2007 年 7 月至 9 月在西南部和南部地区。确定了三个跨越州和国际边界的时空集群，这与疾病通过本地和远距离传播发生一致。这呼吁各州和地区当局加强战略，在州、国家和国际各级提高监测、预防和控制措施。
