Department of Criminal Justice, Indiana University, 302 Sycamore Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA.
Suicide Life Threat Behav. 2009 Dec;39(6):659-70. doi: 10.1521/suli.2009.39.6.659.
There is substantial evidence of detrimental psychological sequelae following disasters, including terrorist attacks. The effect of these events on extreme responses such as suicide, however, is unclear. We tested competing hypotheses about such effects by employing autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model the impact of September 11 and the Oklahoma City bombing on monthly suicide counts at the local, state, and national level. Unlike prior studies that provided conflicting evidence, rigorous time series techniques revealed no support for an increase or decrease in suicides following these events. We conclude that while terrorist attacks produce subsequent psychological morbidity and may affect self and collective efficacy well beyond their immediate impact, these effects are not strong enough to influence levels of suicide mortality.
大量证据表明，灾难（包括恐怖袭击）会带来有害的心理后果。然而，这些事件对自杀等极端反应的影响尚不清楚。我们通过自回归综合移动平均技术来检验这些影响的竞争假设，以对 9·11 事件和俄克拉荷马城爆炸案对地方、州和国家层面每月自杀人数的影响进行建模。与之前提供相互矛盾证据的研究不同，严格的时间序列技术没有支持这些事件后自杀人数增加或减少的证据。我们的结论是，尽管恐怖袭击会产生后续的心理发病率，并且可能会在其直接影响之外很久影响自我和集体效能，但这些影响还不足以影响自杀死亡率。
