Prediction of variceal hemorrhage in cirrhosis: a prospective follow-up study.

Endoscopic, clinical, and laboratory parameters including presence of varices in the gastric fundus, red color sign, diameter and number of variceal columns, platelet count, and the Child status were assessed in 109 patients with cirrhosis and esophageal varices without previous variceal bleeding. During a mean follow-up period of 21 months, the predictive values of these parameters with regard to first bleeding incidence and mortality rate were studied. The incidence of bleeding was 29%, and the mortality rate 46%. Endoscopic criteria (presence of varices in the gastric fundus, presence of the red color sign, and size of the largest varix) as well as alcoholic etiology of cirrhosis showed a significant positive correlation with the bleeding incidence but not with mortality. Contrary to this, two factors of the Child classification (encephalopathy and ascites) and age positively correlated with mortality but not with the bleeding incidence.